Mark Cuban Criticizes Polymarket’s Election Odds

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban has expressed skepticism over the predictive reliability of Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, in forecasting the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Speaking in an interview with CNBC’s *Squawk Box*, Cuban suggested that the betting odds on the platform are not a reliable indicator of the election’s outcome, largely because of what he described as the influence of “foreign money.”

“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think it’s an indication of anything,” Cuban stated. This comment came as Polymarket’s odds showed former President Donald Trump with a 64.1% chance of winning against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who had a 36.1% chance at the time of writing.

Polymarket, built on the Polygon blockchain, has seen over $2.2 billion staked on the election prediction, with about $600 million placed on Trump and $400 million on Harris. However, U.S. citizens are barred from participating due to a 2022 decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which resulted in Polymarket paying a $1.4 million fine for offering unregistered binary options.

While Cuban dismissed the platform’s odds as skewed, he did reveal that he holds an indirect stake in Polymarket through a crypto investment fund. Critics of Polymarket, including Cuban, argue that the odds could be manipulated by users with ulterior motives, referencing a Wall Street Journal report that suggested a few high-value bettors might be distorting the platform’s predictions.

Despite the skepticism, Polymarket has accurately predicted recent U.S. political events, including President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 race before November.