FTX Repayments a ‘Win,’ Says Trader Who Predicted Collapse

A crypto trader and marketing executive who correctly predicted FTX’s collapse believes that FTX creditor repayments happening just two years after the bankruptcy is a win—all things considered.

“I thought it would take longer, just because there’s so many jurisdictional issues, you’re working with so many different governments, different levels of enforcement, different levels of compliance,” Ishan Bhaidani told Cointelegraph’s Turner Wright in a Feb. 28 interview at ETHDenver.

“I think two years is kind of a win.”

💰 FTX Creditors to Receive 118% of Their Claims

FTX, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Nov. 11, 2022, began its first round of reimbursements on Feb. 18, 2025.

🔹 The next round of FTX creditor payouts is set for May 30, 2025.
🔹 Eligible creditors must verify claims by April 11.
🔹 98% of creditors are expected to receive at least 118% of their claim value in cash.

Despite the quick recovery timeline, Bhaidani is curious about how claim buyers will fare:

“If you were taking $0.25 on the dollar and buying Bitcoin at $18,000, $20,000, $30,000 you did pretty well.”
“You bought ETH, you didn’t do as well. You bought SOL? You did really, really freaking well.”

📉 FTX’s Collapse: A Predictable Disaster

Bhaidani is known for predicting FTX’s downfall a month before it unraveled.

He cited two major red flags:

1️⃣ FTX’s exposure to the $60 billion Terra Luna collapse
2️⃣ Former FTX US President Brett Harrison’s sudden departure before his equity vested

“He doesn’t even hit his vest on a $32 billion company… we’re talking about hundreds of millions of dollars in potential equity, why is he leaving without vesting? Something has to be wrong in the kitchen over there.”

🚔 Could Sam Bankman-Fried Ever Be Pardoned?

When asked whether FTX’s disgraced founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) might ever receive a pardon from his 25-year sentence, Bhaidani gave it a 2% to 5% chance.

However, under the current Trump administration, he believes the odds are even slimmer.

💭 The Bottom Line: FTX’s Legacy Lives On

While FTX’s collapse remains one of the largest financial frauds in U.S. history, its relatively fast creditor payouts have surprised many.

With most creditors getting more than they lost, the real winners and losers may be those who bought claims early on, banking on a longer resolution process.

For now, the crypto world is watching as FTX’s final chapter continues to unfold.