Bitcoin’s Bull Run: Will It Peak in July 2025?

Bitcoin’s price is down 3% in the past 24 hours and 8% over the week, trading at $91,250. Despite the decline, analysts suggest this January pullback is typical and the bull market could resume soon, potentially culminating in a peak by mid-July 2025.

BTC’s Price Movements and Technical Indicators

Recent data reveals Bitcoin has been consolidating for four weeks, following its 2024 surge to an all-time high of $108,268 on Dec. 17. The price has since dropped 14%, but technical indicators like the 52-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggest further upside potential.

According to analyst Dave the Wave, Bitcoin’s price historically peaks when the 52-week SMA crosses the middle band of the Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC). Past bull cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021 show this crossing tends to occur a few days or months before or after Bitcoin tops.

Mid-July 2025: A Potential Turning Point

Based on current trends, the one-year SMA is expected to reach the LGC’s midpoint in mid-July 2025, hinting at a potential Bitcoin peak during this timeframe. Dave the Wave also notes the flattening slope of the SMA reflects a maturing Bitcoin market.

Final Stages of Price Correction?

Analyst Rekt Capital believes the current consolidation is part of Bitcoin’s “first price discovery correction,” typically lasting two to four weeks. With the retracement now in its fourth week, Rekt Capital suggests the correction could be nearing its end.

Similarly, Axel Adler Jr. highlights that this correction is milder than Bitcoin’s 26% drop between July and August 2024, signaling healthier market conditions. Analysts also attribute this behavior to the post-halving year trends, which often start with mild corrections before resuming upward momentum.

Head-and-Shoulders Pattern: Bearish or Bullish?

Veteran trader Peter Brandt identified a potential head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern in Bitcoin’s daily chart. The pattern suggests three possible scenarios:

1. Bitcoin completes the H&S trend and drops to a target below $77,000.
2. Bitcoin forms the pattern but fails to meet the target, resulting in a bear trap.
3. The H&S morphs into a larger, bullish pattern.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin Munger spotted significant buy orders between $85,000 and $92,000 on Binance, alongside sell orders at $110,000. This indicates the price could either dip to fill the bids or rise to fill the asks.

Analyst Outlook

Despite the volatility, analysts remain optimistic:

• Dave the Wave and Rekt Capital suggest a bullish continuation is on the horizon.
• Bitcoin Munger predicts $110,000 is inevitable, whether BTC dips or rallies first.

As Bitcoin navigates this consolidation phase, mid-July 2025 could mark a defining moment in its bull cycle. Until then, traders should prepare for both upward and downward scenarios.