UPtober is Still Upon Us

Cryptocurrencies experienced a brief surge at the beginning of the week as investors expressed optimism about the potential approval of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. During Monday morning trading, bitcoin saw a sudden spike, surpassing $30,000, following an unconfirmed report suggesting that the iShares spot bitcoin ETF had received formal approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, these gains were quickly reversed as major media outlets could not confirm the report. BlackRock informed CNBC that the iShares Bitcoin ETP application is still under review by the SEC, and sources close to the SEC stated that the report was inaccurate. In recent trading, bitcoin rose by approximately 4% to reach $28,193.00, according to Coin Metrics, while ether increased by more than 1% to trade at $1,585.68.

The previous week, bitcoin experienced a surge in price after news broke that the SEC would not appeal a ruling in the lawsuit between Grayscale and regulators. In June 2022, Grayscale had sued the SEC over the denial of its application to convert the popular Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF.

While it is possible that the SEC could once again deny Grayscale’s request, the commission has been facing challenges in its efforts to regulate the cryptocurrency industry broadly, with Grayscale proving to be a particular obstacle. The D.C. Court of Appeals had previously labeled the SEC’s denial as “arbitrary and capricious.” Many investors interpreted Friday’s news as a sign that the SEC might be closer to allowing Grayscale to list GBTC shares as an ETF.

A spokesperson for Grayscale stated, “The Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure’s 45-day period to seek rehearing has now passed. The Court will now issue its final mandate within seven calendar days. The Grayscale team remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval, and we look forward to sharing more information as soon as practicable.”

However, despite the recent optimism, bitcoin had experienced its worst week since August 18 and its first negative week in six, losing 4.35% for the week and closing at $26,755.66, according to Coin Metrics. Ether also faced a 6.36% loss for the week, ending at $1,544.24.

Bitcoin and ether may be benefiting from concerns about a potential recession, with notable figures like Paul Tudor Jones and Bernstein suggesting that bitcoin could serve as a safe haven trade in an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Nonetheless, regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. crypto industry has kept investors cautious about increasing their positions, resulting in low volume and liquidity in the market. Bitcoin has struggled to break above $30,000.

The optimism on Monday morning also had a positive impact on other cryptocurrencies. Ripple’s XRP and Binance Coin, the top coins by market capitalization after bitcoin and ether (excluding stablecoins), each saw gains of more than 1%. Solana’s SOL token, a smart contracts platform, was up by 6%, and Cardano’s ADA token added 2%.

In contrast, crypto equities, which have also faced challenges recently, outperformed crypto assets. On Monday morning, Coinbase saw an increase of more than 2% in early trading, and mining stocks such as Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital were up by approximately 5% across the board.