France Set to Block Blockchain Prediction Platform Polymarket

France’s National Gaming Authority (ANJ) is considering blocking access to Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market that recently facilitated over $3.5 billion in trading volume during the U.S. presidential election. The regulator is currently investigating the platform’s compliance with French gambling laws, according to local news outlet The Big Whale.

The scrutiny follows massive election-related bets by a high-profile French trader known as Théo, who reportedly placed multimillion-dollar wagers on Donald Trump’s re-election. Théo’s accurate prediction earned him a staggering $47 million payout, sparking interest from regulators. Reuters first identified the trader in a report two weeks before the election, citing his experience in finance and expertise in political prediction.

Polymarket’s Regulatory Concerns and Potential Ban

The ANJ’s regulatory concerns center around Polymarket’s structure and its potential conflicts with French gambling legislation. The gaming authority may implement access restrictions by blocking the platform’s domain name within France, and according to reports, could pressure media outlets not to link directly to the site. However, users may still access Polymarket via VPNs, as the platform only requires a crypto wallet for entry rather than traditional identity verification.

Polymarket’s innovative use of blockchain to enable betting without intermediaries has attracted attention globally. It operates exclusively in crypto and offers users the freedom to place bets without the same regulatory constraints applied to traditional betting platforms. This approach has raised concerns over manipulation, especially given the enormous sums involved in high-stakes bets.

Rising Regulatory Pressure on Prediction Markets

Globally, Polymarket has faced increased regulatory scrutiny. In the U.S., the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) opened an investigation into Polymarket in 2021, addressing potential manipulation risks and proposing stricter oversight of prediction markets. These platforms, which often see large amounts of money wagered on major events, face criticism for their potential to amplify insider trading risks.

Despite these issues, prediction markets like Polymarket continue to attract billions in bets. In addition to the recent surge around the U.S. election, Polymarket logged over $294 million in trading volume on November 5, fueled by crypto users eager to speculate on the outcome.

Blockchain Technology and the Future of Prediction Markets

Polymarket’s blockchain-based model has set it apart from traditional betting sites. Unlike standard platforms, it allows users to place bets directly with crypto, without relying on intermediaries. The platform controls the proposals available for betting, but Polymarket has hinted at plans to eventually decentralize by launching a governance token, potentially allowing users more control over its operations.

Even with regulatory skepticism, Polymarket’s predictive accuracy has earned it credibility among users. The platform correctly signaled Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race and Trump’s election victory, weeks before these outcomes materialized. However, with potential restrictions in France and ongoing global scrutiny, the future of blockchain-based prediction markets may hinge on how well they can navigate evolving regulatory landscapes.